Live quarterback EPA

Total EPA and EPA/Play are ours: our nflfastR Expected Points model run over ESPN's play-by-play. “Plays” is the dropback count those two numbers are computed over; a quarterback with only a handful of plays gets no color tint, since a single-drive sample is noise, not a read on the day. Everything from Comp/Att rightward is ESPN's own box score, passed through.

The grade is the Margin QB Grade (defined on the quarterback page) for this game. A is 75 and up, B 60–74, C 40–59, D 25–39, F under 25. Season and right-now show where his grades would stand if the game ended now. The final grade, from the full play-by-play, posts that night or the next morning.

Completion % over expected (CPOE): when the feed carries it, this is how much better (or worse) a quarterback completed his charted throws than an average NFL passer would on the same attempts, per nflfastR's completion-probability model. It is a rate stat, computed the same way whether the game is in progress or long over.

The table's other columns:aDoT is average depth of target over his charted throws. Trend is his running Total EPA across the game. Margin Grade is the points a quarterback adds per play in this game so far (50 is an average QB play; one game's spread is about 25 points, so a 75 game is a very good one), muted with “few plays” before he has 10 dropbacks. Season and Right now are his season grade and his current level if the game ended now, with the change from before it in brackets. The live grade can differ slightly from the final one: pass penalties are not in the live feed, and the final is built from nflverse the next morning. See the Margin QB Grade page for the full definition. Szn EPA is his EPA per play for the season through last week, to read today's number against. QBR is ESPN's, filled in once ESPN posts it, usually within an hour of the final. Expanded adds his total yards, touchdowns and turnovers, yards per attempt, and his rushing line. Composition splits his throws into short and deep as the NFL's own play-by-play labels them, and YAC% is the share of his completed yards gained after the catch.

A live Total EPA is a running tally, not a final grade. The same number after the next snap can move either way. Nothing on this page is a bet recommendation, and these numbers never enter the site's published record; that record counts completed games only (see Calibration).