About The Margin

Updated as games go final.

What is published

Game projections for the NFL, college football and the NBA, shown next to the betting line, with team and player ratings, season simulations, a weekly slate of calls frozen before kickoff and a public record of how all of it graded.

The margin is the points between our line and the market's, and the points between a projection and the result.

Each game shows our line beside the market's, and the table shows the model values behind it. The record includes the misses.

When it updates

In football season, predictions freeze midweek, McConnell's Calls post on the Thursday before the games, and ratings and the record update as games go final. The NBA model returns with the 2026-27 season in late October. College baseball ran February through the College World Series in June and is now a finished-season record. Articles post when there is a result to report; the analysis page and the RSS feed carry them as they land.

Who writes this

I'm Jesse McConnell. I build the models and write everything here. The Calls carry a name because someone should answer for a losing week, and the record shows every call win or lose. The picks come out of the model, frozen before the week starts, and are graded whether or not they look good afterward.

Contact

Questions, corrections, or a format you would rather have the data in: message me on X (@themarginsports). The open data page has the frozen CSVs and the JSON behind every page.