This week's games

Model is our projected winner and margin. Vegas is the betting line; on a game a book has priced, testing says it is the better forecast. Gap is the points between the two. A side is named only when the gap is a few points: closer than that the two agree, and far off the model names no side.

Total range is an 80% range for the combined score, with the market total beside it. It is not an over/under pick. Open a row for the 1 in 4 window, the frozen line against the line now, and how the NFL model builds its number.

The week record counts only the week on screen and only games where a side was named. The season records are in the strip under the title: the Model record grades our line against the closing spread on every game, and the Calls record grades only McConnell's Calls. A game on the calls sheet is tagged in its row. Calls are frozen before kickoff, so the live number can differ from the call by a fraction of a point.

These are pregame numbers. Scores come from ESPN in your browser; a game in progress shows how our side is doing, and nothing is graded until it is final.