Record
McConnell's Calls
3-5 calls a week per sport, posted before kickoff, graded at the posted price.
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Calls are frozen before kickoff and never revised. Losses are listed with the wins.
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How this works
- McConnell's Calls
- Only the games published as McConnell's Calls, graded at the posted price, flat stake. The same number appears on /picks.
- Lean and The Board
- The three core spreads: our number sits modestly off the line (NFL 1.5 to 3 points, college 1.5 to 4) and we take that side.
- Near the line
- NFL only. Fills the core when fewer than three leans qualify, from games within 1.5 points of the line.
- The Lock
- A favorite on the moneyline, no shorter than -250, when our number gives it at least the market's chance.
- Tests (dashed tag)
- Up to two forward tests: an NFL game where a 3 or 7 sits between our number and the line, or a college game where both of our models take the same side. A test is a measurement, not a claim.
- Key number
- A 3 or 7 sits between our number and the line. Whether that matters is the open question the test slot exists to answer.
- Wins above market
- Our wins minus the wins the posted prices said to expect, with one standard error. Zero means no edge, whatever the mix of favorites and underdogs.
- Beat the line
- Our posted number against the number the market closed at, on the side we named. For the NFL the comparison line is a DraftKings line scraped hours before kickoff, and the record says how many hours.
- Stopping rule
- After 100 graded calls the sheet is retired or reframed if wins above market is below -1.96 standard errors, or if the average against the closing line is negative with a 95% interval that excludes zero.
- Slot history
- Hit rates on slots are backward-looking. We found each slot by looking for what had already worked, so the number says how these picks scored in seasons already played, not how the next game will go.
- Not on the sheet
- Underdog moneylines and totals. About 700 variations were tested and none beat the price reliably.
- Current line
- Open calls show the line available now. When the feed is down the row says so instead of repeating an old number.
The game projections rerun the model as inputs change, so their number can differ from the frozen one here. The frozen number is the one graded. Replay figures are what the rules would have done on seasons already played and are not a record. The NFL model does not beat the betting market. The calls are the model’s; the name is who answers for them (who writes this).