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The Margin
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What The Margin publishes and how to read it.

What's on the site

What the numbers are

Every rating, projected margin and win probability with our name on it comes from our own models. Nothing is copied from a sportsbook. Next to each game we show the betting market's line, from DraftKings and ESPN, so you can see where we agree with it and where we don't. How they work: NFL and college.

How to read a gap

The gap is the points between our line and the market's. A gap is not a pick. Under 1.5 points, we agree with the market. From 1.5 to 3 points is a lean. Past 3 points is an outlier, and bigger is not better: in NFL games that far apart, the market's number has been closer to the final score than ours. The closing line is the best public number there is. Our goal is to get close to it.

McConnell's Calls

McConnell's Calls are 3 to 5 games a week per sport, chosen by rules written down in advance. They are frozen before kickoff, never revised, and graded at the price they went out at, wins and losses both. Starting with the first week frozen after October 6, 2026, each week's calls are saved as one file with its SHA-256 hash recorded at the moment of the freeze. The files are listed under “Frozen NFL files” and “Frozen college files” on the Calls page, so anyone can check a week was not changed.

The record and the methods

The record shows the model's average miss next to the Vegas closing line on the same games, plus straight-up, against-the-spread and the Calls. Calibration checks whether the things we give a 70% chance happen about 70% of the time. Methodology covers how each model is built, What the numbers mean defines every term, and Open data has the files behind every page.

I'm Jesse McConnell. I build the models and write everything here. More about the site.