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The Margin, college baseball

Regional win probabilities

2026 NCAA Division I Baseball Tournament, 50,000-sim Monte Carlo, SLIDER rating

Chance to win the regional

<10%

10 to 25

25 to 45

45 to 65

65 to 80

80%+

The Margin

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Snapshot May 25, 2026

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© 2026 The Margin, McConnell Digital. All projections are published for information only; nothing here is betting advice.

College baseball team ratings from PEAR Ratings. Projected fields from D1Baseball and Baseball America. NFL play-by-play from nflverse. College football data from CollegeFootballData. NBA team and player stats from NBA.com. Betting lines from DraftKings and ESPN. Prediction market prices on game pages from Kalshi. Weather forecasts from Open-Meteo, using the ECMWF and GFS ensembles.